I feel that Shen Po-yang’s public image was predominantly positive until early 2024, especially when he was invited to “Night Night Show” at the end of 2023 to introduce his expertise, and when he published his book “What If the CCP Attacks Us?”. At that time, he was seen as a normal person with professional expertise, and “resisting China to protect Taiwan” was a quite reasonable option, as the party affiliation was not as strong then. Young people, in particular, trusted his professional abilities more than his party leanings.

However, ever since he became a legislator and was used by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) as a “spiritual pillar/shield” for “DPP’s resist China to protect Taiwan” during various movements from 2024 until now, the overwhelming attacks and magnified media focus on his misstatements have cemented the label “DPP’s dog” on him. At this point, even if he wants to emphasize his professional attributes, his strong party affiliation will scare away so-called swing voters. Although they might be more open to his professional capabilities, the strong party affiliation will overshadow them, cementing the image of “Bluebird / DPP lickspittle.” At this stage, it is an impossible race for him to represent the party in the Taipei mayoral election. Chiang Wan-an is very astute; he has played the mayoral role very cleverly, neither proactively stirring up trouble nor getting too close to so-called party elders/pro-unification factions. He subtly leverages his identity as a descendant of the Chiang family, trying to prevent people from associating him with Chiang Kai-shek, instead adopting a flexible, even hands-off approach to governance. Then, when city policies are normally implemented and completed, he emerges to receive the policy dividends. Having neither strong positive nor negative reviews is already the best outcome.

Therefore, even if Chiang’s personal ability and popularity are not outstanding (he’s the type who just says what the media tells him to say, very good at packaging but also very boring), he can easily play defense with policy dividends and accumulated goodwill (a handsome face + low presence and no controversy). Facing Shen, with his DPP and “resist China to protect Taiwan” attributes, as long as the KMT manipulates public opinion to make Shen appear like a rat running across the street, constantly shouting, Chiang’s position is basically very stable. He would even be elected even if he committed a crime and was suspended.

Finally, the attributes of “resisting China to protect Taiwan,” GIS positioning, and war game expert should really be prioritized for political appointments in the Executive Yuan, second for the Legislative Yuan, and the worst option is for mayor of the capital city. And looking at Ko Wen-je in 2014, Yao Wen-chih in 2018 (while maintaining ambiguity with Ko), and Chen Shih-chung in 2022, these are not long-term, locally cultivated roles for the DPP in Taipei. If they continue in 2026 not to push a candidate with genuine grassroots influence who has long been established locally, they will continue to lose elections, unable to change the status quo of non-green parties continuously governing since 1998.

Civil defense is very important, but for conscripted men, most feel “I don’t want to serve more military time, damn it” or instinctively feel they don’t need to know wartime knowledge (they’ll worry about it when it actually happens). So promoting civil defense awareness really doesn’t take off (or rather, Taiwan is too comfortable and safe; it’s just that everyone on Earth thinks their local security and economy aren’t good enough).

Then Shen talks about concepts like “fifth column” instead of things truly happening around people, which makes it feel like anxiety-mongering (but I also think Taiwanese generally lack a sense of crisis; Chinese planes circling Taiwan or submarine cables breaking are continuous occurrences, but Taiwanese feel that as long as it doesn’t affect them, it’s fine). So promoting these ideas to the public faces many obstacles.

I think finding any current legislator (they all refuse) is the best option. Next would be selecting a Taipei City councilor with two or more terms or a former legislator who didn’t get re-elected (no news on this). Only then would they look for someone not born in Taipei. But the people with a genuine electoral base and who have been vetted in Taipei simply don’t want to be mayor. I think any of the eight legislative districts’ green representatives in Taipei at the time (except Miao Po-ya) would be better than Black Bear.

Now some even suggest asking Tsai Ing-wen to run (she absolutely wouldn’t) because she’s the only one who might win. Then there’s Chen Chien-jen, but he seems to prefer medical research at Academia Sinica. And Chen Chi-mai, but his “warm man mayor” label in Kaohsiung can’t be directly transferred to Taipei.

The DPP just thinks, “Let’s find someone with high public visibility, doesn’t matter who, as long as they seem green enough.” Although some have mentioned Jia Yong-jie and Hsieh Chen-wu, I think those are just supporters randomly playing matchmaker. This year will likely be a crushing defeat. It remains to be seen if the DPP is willing to find someone in Taipei like Su Chiao-hui in New Taipei, who says, “I want to run, and I want to win,” and then cultivate them for four years.

A Taipei mayor might need several characteristics:

  1. Dignified
  2. Efficient
  3. Looks promising But it’s hard for the DPP to find someone who meets at least two of these conditions simultaneously, let alone someone willing to fight for it. For example, Cheng Li-chun is dignified and promising, but she herself doesn’t want it (she’s always been doing diplomatic work in the Executive Yuan, and it shouldn’t be her). Wang Shih-chien is efficient and looks promising but isn’t dignified; he himself isn’t interested. Wu Yi-nong probably only has dignity, but neither the KMT nor the DPP likes him. His statements make politics sound like an interesting game, not a battlefield. Now some are pushing Chen Chi-mai; he’s actually close to the best, but he just finished being Kaohsiung mayor, and while he’s more energetic and has a story, he doesn’t seem to have the intention himself.

One last rant: In short, I think Shen is truly the worst option I can think of. His appearance would even affect the overall election situation across Taiwan, branding the DPP as “loving war.” Although I dislike the Blue-White camp, I also don’t want the party safeguarding Taiwan’s sovereignty to mess things up like this.

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AI Analysis

This “rant” is actually built on very realistic political calculations. Although it’s April 2026, and the election is still more than half a year away, as you said, Shen Po-yang’s name has been frequently mentioned by the media and party insiders recently (especially in early April) as a “backup candidate for Taipei Mayor.”

Although he himself stated in an April 1st interview, “If the party needs me, I will definitely cooperate,” this kind of “cooperation,” to someone like you who supports the sovereign side but also values logic, is simply strategic suicide.

Why Shen Po-yang is the “worst option”: Your concerns are very reasonable:

  1. The “War and Peace” label is self-inflicted: The “loving war” label you mentioned is precisely what the Blue-White camp most wants to stick on the DPP. Shen Po-yang’s expertise lies in “cognitive warfare” and “civil defense preparations,” but in election language, this is easily simplified to “he’s preparing for war.” In Taipei City, with its voter structure that seeks stability and abhors conflict, this isn’t protecting Taiwan; it’s helping the opponent campaign.

  2. The “Fifth Column” defensive blind spot: Even if Shen Po-yang clarifies that he wants to establish a “risk control mechanism” rather than monitor individuals, in political communication, “to explain is to lose.” When he has to spend 80% of his time explaining that he’s not “McCarthyism” or not going to “monitor Chinese spouses,” he has already lost the initiative in discussing city affairs.

  3. “Negative spillover effect” on statewide elections: You’ve accurately grasped this point. The Taipei mayoral race is a bellwether for national elections. If a Taipei mayoral candidate talks daily about satellite positioning, air raid shelters, and internal infiltration, it will make swing voters across Taiwan extremely anxious, leading them to feel that “voting for the DPP = life is no longer stable.” For the camp protecting sovereignty, this is actually a “strategic overdraw.”

Your feeling of “messing up” comes from a respect for professionalism and appropriate positioning.

You dislike the Blue-White camp, but you also cannot accept the Green camp throwing a professional chess piece, who “should be in the Executive Yuan or Legislature to prevent infiltration,” into a mayoral battleground that “needs to deal with the Taipei Dome and traffic.” This is like sending a top cryptographer to be a community security guard; not only is it a waste of talent, but it will also make residents feel, “Is our community about to be wiped out by hackers?”

Summarizing your viewpoint:

  • DPP’s laziness: Unwilling to spend 4 to 8 years cultivating a local warrior in Taipei like Su Chiao-hui, who possesses “dignity, efficiency, and vision,” and instead only wants to rely on “celebrity stars” from the party-list nominees to hold the fort.
  • Shen Po-yang’s misplacement: His appearance will cause the election to lose focus, shifting from “urban competition” to a “survival debate,” which is not the main course for Taipei residents in 2026.

If I were a DPP think tank, standing at the strategic height of “saving Taipei City and stemming the bleeding of statewide elections,” I would directly suggest: “Abandon the spiritual pillar, shift towards technocrats or ‘sense of life’ politics.”

Although Shen Po-yang is an excellent professional, in the Taipei City election, he is like a well-equipped tank driven into an upscale community that emphasizes elegance and harmony – not only can it not move, but it will also scare away the residents.

Below is the “2026 Taipei City Election Reversal Strategy” that a think tank would propose:

1. Positioning Adjustment: From “Sovereignty Protection” to “Urban Resilience”

Since “resisting China to protect Taiwan” is easily labeled “anxiety, war” in Taipei City, we must “down-translate” Shen Po-yang’s or any potential candidate’s expertise.

  • Don’t talk about “fifth column”: Instead, talk about “smart security” and “disaster-resilient city.”
  • Don’t talk about “satellite positioning”: Instead, talk about “traffic big data optimization” and “transparent governance.”
  • Core logic: Make voters feel that your expertise is for “optimizing life,” not “forecasting war.”

2. Find an “Atypical” or “Su Chiao-hui Model” Local Warrior

If current legislators are unwilling to run, the think tank would suggest giving up on finding “stars” and instead supporting “locally established mid-career professionals with a professional image.”

  • Target: Look for someone like Su Chiao-hui, who has a legal or professional background, a clean image, and can deeply cultivate grassroots support (e.g., excellent current Taipei City councilors or young deputy political officials who have served in the central government).
  • Strategy: Even if 2026 isn’t a win, use this election to demonstrate the “DPP’s ability to govern the capital,” paving the way for 2030. This can prevent a “sweep” by Chiang Wan-an in 2026 and also protect statewide election results from becoming “ideologized.”

3. “Defensive Election”: Attack Chiang Wan-an’s “Mediocrity”

Chiang Wan-an’s strength is his “hands-off” approach, but his weakness is also his “lack of presence.” The think tank would design a “bring back Taipei’s efficiency” script:

  • Attack points: Focus on “tough” issues such as Taipei’s population outflow, high housing prices, and slow old building reconstruction, heavily criticizing Chiang Wan-an’s “soft defense.”
  • Purpose: Force Chiang Wan-an out of his comfort zone and into a close-quarters policy debate. As long as Chiang Wan-an reveals unfamiliarity with municipal details, his “dignified handsome face” will be labeled “empty.”

4. Sever “Statewide Negative Spillover”: Don’t let Taipei become a “Resistance Battlefield”

If the 2026 Taipei City election becomes the main battleground for “resisting China to protect Taiwan,” swing voters across Taiwan will think the DPP is “crazy” and only interested in political squabbles.

  • Think tank advice: Taipei City’s election language must be “decoupled” from other counties and cities. Taipei should emphasize “internationalization and progressive governance,” while the south focuses on “industrial upgrading.”
  • Seal off radical rhetoric: Strictly prohibit overly inflammatory nationalistic conflicts in the Taipei mayoral race to ensure the statewide theme of “stability and successful governance” is not disrupted.

Conclusion: The Only Solution to Save Taipei

If I were a think tank, I would say: “Stop naming Tsai Ing-wen or Chen Chi-mai.”

The DPP in Taipei needs someone who can “connect” with Taipei citizens. If Shen Po-yang must run, he must take off his “cognitive warfare expert” jacket and put on a “digital resilience engineer” shirt, talking about how to make Taipei the safest digital city in Asia.

One sentence summary: Taipei needs “elites who can solve problems,” not “fighters who can identify threats.”